peace in northern uganda: five questions

Last Saturday the Uganda Conflict Action Network reported that Vincent Otti, Joseph Kony’s righthand man, has declared that he will turn himself over to the International Criminal Court if it charges the UPDF with crimes against humanity and war crimes. This is the second time this year I’ve found myself wanting to side with the LRA, another reminder that this conflict is vastly more complex than it seems. Last year’s ICC indictments of the top LRA commanders have raised a number of questions:

Should the ICC take precedence over Ugandan governmental and/or traditional justice mechanisms?
I wrote earlier about the problems inherent in using traditional justice to “solve” the conflict in northern Uganda: though Acholi culture provides a number of reconciliation rituals that may be able to heal some of the rifts this war has created, other cultures have also been affected. Many people — the Langi and Iteso, for example — may not feel that Acholi ceremonies are sufficiently punitive to provide justice for the crimes that have been committed against them.

Should the ICC arrest warrants be traded in for a peace agreement?
At the moment, there is only one “way out” of the arrest warrants against Kony, Otti and the two other top commanders: the Ugandan government must prove that handling justice internally will be more beneficial to the Ugandan population than honoring the warrants. Local and international organizations have clamored for the ICC to rescind the warrants if that is what it takes to reach a peace agreement. The court is understandably reluctant, as these are the first warrants they have issued; to void them would set a weak precedent for future action. The LRA has repeatedly used the warrants as a trump card, refusing to allow any progress in the peace talks until they are assured they will not be arrested.

How should the UPDF be held accountable?
I’d like to agree with Otti that the ICC should issue arrest warrants for specific UPDF commanders and try them for crimes against humanity right beside the LRA, but that solution is wishful thinking. The government will never give up its precious military men to the ICC — Museveni’s not exactly jonesing for public disgrace right now (or at any time, really).

Where does that leave the peace process?
The inherent problem here is that the Ugandan government is incapable of meting out justice single-handedly. The widespread accusations and documented incidents of war crimes on the part of the UPDF prevent any peace process spearheaded by the government from appearing legitimate in the eyes of many northern Ugandans. At the same time, a completely external system of justice — trials at the Hague for LRA and UPDF commanders — violates the sovereignty of the Ugandan government.

Traditional justice alone won’t bring peace. The ICC alone won’t bring peace. The government alone won’t bring peace. I’m hoping this is a case of three wrongs making a right. The only end I see to the past twenty years of war is one that blends multiple local views on justice, cooperation with the ICC (this will most likely take the form of an alternative system of justice, developed according to guidelines set by the court and other major international organizations — this way both the court and the government can save face) and a bit of backing down on both the LRA and government sides.

Is that possible?
The skeptic in me says Museveni will never allow the UPDF to be prosecuted, which in my opinion prevents any workable peace agreement. Last week, though, head mediator Riek Machar declared that the peace talks have “reached a point of no return.” His statement is particularly noteworthy given that the current point of discussion in Juba is accountability and reconciliation, the topic which has caused the most trouble in the talks so far.

uganda changing mind on peace talks

Museveni said he would give Kony until August to work for peace, but it appears that pressure from the ICC has gotten to him. The Ugandan government refused to meet with LRA leadership today in Juba, Sudan, the site of the peace talks arranged by the southern Sudanese government.

Okello Oryem, Uganda’s junior foreign minister, passed the conflict and the LRA off as a “regional problem now – not a Uganda problem” and called for southern Sudan, the DRC and UN forces in Sudan to arrest Kony.

nutshell

So let’s get this straight. First, Museveni says he won’t negotiate with Kony. Then Kony says he wants peace, so Museveni gives him until August. The ICC says no way and that Museveni must arrest Kony and the rest of the LRA leadership. The U.S. jumps in and says we’ll capture Kony by December. The regional government of Southern Sudan meets with Kony and Otti and gives the LRA $25,000, supposedly on the condition that they enter into peace negotiations (which the ICC has banned, remember?). Despite the pleas of religious leaders in northern Uganda to focus on peace, Interpol issued their own arrest warrants for Kony and five other LRA commanders, adding to the international pressure against negotiations. Meanwhile, the SPLA and Kony plan to start negotiations next week.

All clear?

In other news, Ugandan students have invented a pot refrigerator. If only that were as wonderful as it sounds.

ICC says no to peace settlement

The International Criminal Court has declared that Uganda must keep its commitment to arrest Kony. Museveni offered protection to Kony if he would end the war by July. Britain and the U.S. side with the ICC, saying that Kony must be captured and tried.

Uganda: International Criminal Court Opposes Museveni Peace Offer to Kony
via allafrica.com

So I guess that answers that question.

U.S. wants to capture Kony by December

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer said this week that “it is a priority of President Bush’s administration to get rid of the LRA before the end of this year, if we can.”

British Overseas Development Minister Hillary Benn wrote, “We agreed that there must be regional cooperation to tackle the threat of LRA, which who would be helped by the appointment of a special UN envoy for the region.”

Uganda: US Wants to Capture Kony By End of Year
via allafrica.com

My questions: Will Kony end hostilities by July, knowing that the ICC has a warrant out for his arrest? Will the ICC back down and allow Museveni to offer amnesty? What implications will this have for future ICC warrants? Will the other LRA commanders surrender (Otti has been wavering for some time)? After twenty years of generally ignoring the conflict, how will the U.S. approach their mission to “get rid of the LRA”? Will an increased emphasis on a military tack end the war, or will it cause more civilian deaths?