I think I’m starting to get the hang of this conflict resolution thing. The trick is to commit yourself, resolutely, in one direction, and then change your mind just as resolutely. Repeat:
May 4, 2006: no peace talks
May 17, 2006: peace talks
May 25, 2006: no peace talks
June 14, 2006: peace talks
June 14, 2006: no peace talks
June 17, 2006: peace talks
June 17, 2006: no peace talks
July 3, 2006: peace talks
May 16, 2006: kill Kony
June 21, 2006: work with Kony
June 22, 2006: kill Kony
June 26, 2006: work with Kony
July 7, 2006: reject amnesty
July 8, 2006: accept amnesty
Museveni said he would give Kony until August to work for peace, but it appears that pressure from the ICC has gotten to him. The Ugandan government refused to meet with LRA leadership today in Juba, Sudan, the site of the peace talks arranged by the southern Sudanese government.
Okello Oryem, Uganda’s junior foreign minister, passed the conflict and the LRA off as a “regional problem now – not a Uganda problem” and called for southern Sudan, the DRC and UN forces in Sudan to arrest Kony.
So let’s get this straight. First, Museveni says he won’t negotiate with Kony. Then Kony says he wants peace, so Museveni gives him until August. The ICC says no way and that Museveni must arrest Kony and the rest of the LRA leadership. The U.S. jumps in and says we’ll capture Kony by December. The regional government of Southern Sudan meets with Kony and Otti and gives the LRA $25,000, supposedly on the condition that they enter into peace negotiations (which the ICC has banned, remember?). Despite the pleas of religious leaders in northern Uganda to focus on peace, Interpol issued their own arrest warrants for Kony and five other LRA commanders, adding to the international pressure against negotiations. Meanwhile, the SPLA and Kony plan to start negotiations next week.
In other news, Ugandan students have invented a pot refrigerator. If only that were as wonderful as it sounds.
The International Criminal Court has declared that Uganda must keep its commitment to arrest Kony. Museveni offered protection to Kony if he would end the war by July. Britain and the U.S. side with the ICC, saying that Kony must be captured and tried.
Uganda: International Criminal Court Opposes Museveni Peace Offer to Kony
So I guess that answers that question.
U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer said this week that “it is a priority of President Bush’s administration to get rid of the LRA before the end of this year, if we can.”
British Overseas Development Minister Hillary Benn wrote, “We agreed that there must be regional cooperation to tackle the threat of LRA, which who would be helped by the appointment of a special UN envoy for the region.”
Uganda: US Wants to Capture Kony By End of Year
My questions: Will Kony end hostilities by July, knowing that the ICC has a warrant out for his arrest? Will the ICC back down and allow Museveni to offer amnesty? What implications will this have for future ICC warrants? Will the other LRA commanders surrender (Otti has been wavering for some time)? After twenty years of generally ignoring the conflict, how will the U.S. approach their mission to “get rid of the LRA”? Will an increased emphasis on a military tack end the war, or will it cause more civilian deaths?